Knoxville Tennessee Real Estate Blog

New listing in popular North Hills section of north Knoxville.

Let’s look back over the past 11 years to get some perspective about where the current greater Knoxville, Tennessee area real estate market is compared to past years.

Knoxville area sales for the past 11 years

In 2009 all the members of the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors sold 10,495 houses and condos. in 2008 it was 11,850.  That’s a 11% drop in volume 2008. It’s also a whopping 40% drop from the peak sales year of 2006.

Basically that means the greater Knoxville area is back to pre-2002 sales levels.

That’s what has happened in the past 11 years; now let’s talk about what I believe is going to happen in 2010 and beyond.

I believe interest rates will remain low for at least this year, probably in the 5-6% range because of low demand. Any retailer will tell you that you can’t raise the price of your merchandise if it’s not selling.

Lots of pundits are predicting that housing prices have stabilized. I don’t agree with them. I think foreclosures and short sales will keep downward pressure on housing prices for this year and some years beyond. How many? anyone’s guess.

Mortgage will continue to be hard to get. I’m hearing stories from fellow Realtors about lenders asking for more and more documentation and verifications on even buyers with gold plated credit histories. For instance, I have a closing set for this coming Friday on a fairly high end house, great buyer, great credit history, and substantial down payment. Lender is now (4 days before closing) asking for more documentation and a statement from inspector as to minor maintenance issues. I’ve never had anything like that before.

Still a great time to buy a house, an OK time to sell one that’s priced competitively and in great condition, and it’s now taking longer than ever before to find a buyer and get to the closing table.

Below is the weekly sales report from the Knox County Register of deeds showing all the transfers recorded in the past week. In 2009 we averaged roughly 150 sales a week. I count 98 for last week. A sign of things to come? I don’t necessarily think so. It’s still early in the year and historically near the bottom of the yearly sales cycle.

I’ll continue to monitor these reports and we’ll see if they start to rise in February and March as they have done in past years.

Knoxville, TN weekly sales report

Visit www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com to see all the Knoxville area Realtor listings for sale. Please leave your comments below and feel free to contact me directly with any questions or to schedule a showing or talk about selling your current home.

It’s the week before Thanksgiving, lets see if the Knoxville area real estate market has any real estate thanks to give.

The Knox County Register of Deeds reports 117 closed transactions in the past week. That about 30 less than average. However the Knoxville Area Association of Realtor’s October sales figures show a 14.5% in October 2009 versus October 2008, go figure.

Here’s the past week’s stats broken down by price points.

Knox County Real Estate transactions recorded

The lower price points are still dominant, there are just less of them.

The chart below tracks the past 5 years sales volume through October 2009, the latest available data.

Knoxville area real estate sales

So far this year sales are bucking the seasonal downturn and remaining steady. This is almost certainly driven, at least in part, by the $8,000 tax credit for new homebuyers. Now that it’s been extended to sellers who then buy, it will be interesting to see if it drives more sales in the upper price points.

Below is a comparison of Knoxville area sales for the 3rd quarters (July, August, Sept.) broken down by bedrooms; 2 or fewer, 3, and 4 or more.

11 year comparison of average sales prices by bedroom size

For buyers financing remains a high hurdle. Lenders are demanding more documentation than ever before in addition to squeaky clean credit. Credit markets are in a very volatile state right now; some lenders have even raised their credit score requirements after approving loans based on the former good scores.

However, don’t let any negative talk discourage you from buying if now is the right time for you to buy. There are mortgage loans available at very attractive interest rates and sellers are more flexible than they were last year.

www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com is the place to look at all of the Knoxville area real estate listings for sale.

Please feel free to ask any real estate questions you have or call me to go see some homes for sale.

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Last week’s results from the Knox County Register of Deeds is now available. It appears the past weeks transactions were a bit below our typical weekly average this year of around 150 closed transactions.

Weekly real estate transactions report from the Knox County Register of Deeds

As we’ve seen in previous reports, the median price for a typical 3 bedroom house was $139,900 for the 3rd quarter of 2009. That price point, $100,000 to $150,000 was overwhelmingly the top selling price last week as it has been for most of the year.

Below is www.Trulia.com’s market view of  Knoxville, TN

In September we did see total monthly sales showing a 7% increase (about 60 more homes sold) over the same time period in September of 2008. But taken in context of the past 5 years, that increase really tells us nothing and is far too little data to base any trend on.

Here’s popular website Trulia’s summary of the Knoxville TN area real estate market.

“Average price per square foot for Knoxville TN was $99, a decrease of 10% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Knoxville TN for Jul 09 to Sep 09 was $136,200 based on 1,598 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 4.1%, or $5,800, and the number of home sales decreased 27.7%.

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All of us have probably at one time or another watched one of those TV game shows that feature a “Lightning Round” of fast paced questions.

I applied that to selling your Knoxville area house with a 90 second “Lightning Round” of how to get ready to sell so it will sell more quickly and likely bring you more money.

Here’s the first one:

The Louisville, Kentucky Association of Realtors has a great video with some more selling tips.

And WKMB in Kansas City has 9 great tips to make your home sell.

It’s a tough real estate market out there today folks; LOTS of homes for sale, financing is tougher to get, and buyers are fewer so any things you can do to make your home more appealing and stand above the crowd will get you that much closer to a sale and the closing table.

www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com also has great selling tips including a list of 40 free or inexpensive things you can do to make your Knoxville area home show better, sell faster, and net you more money.

Send me a blank email to 450Tips@JimLee.com and get a free copy of “450 Ways To Help Your Home Sell Faster” , a 52 page eBook full of great tips and suggestions as well as some real life scenarios from selling homes.

The sales figures for the 3rd quarter (July, August, & September) from the Knoxville Association of Realtors is now available online. Let’s take a look at the 3rd quarter of 2009 compared to ones past.

Knoxville's 3rd quarter sales of houses and condos compared to past year's.

As you can see, this year’s 3rd quarter numbers are over 40% lower than a comparable time period in 2005.

Even thought the sales volume for the year is holding up surprisingly well so far the total volume for this year compared to past years is way down. Real estate sales are traditionally very seasonal with a buildup beginning at the first of each year, typically peaking in June, July, or August, and then staring another down trend until the first of the following year. So far that has not happened.

Below is a graph showing the monthly sales to date for this year.

Knoxville Tennessee real estate 2009 month by month sales volume

And here’s another view showing how this year compares to past year’s season rise and fall.

2009 Knoxville real estate sales compared to past years

We’ve talked a lot about sales numbers but how are prices holding up in this depressed market? Fairly well actually. We haven’t seen any really depressed prices compared to some of the harder hit markets like south Florida, California, Michigan, and others. I believe home values have fallen some in the great Knoxville area but not dramatically.

In the Knoxville, Tennessee real estate market a typical sale is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes with a two car garage and somewhere between 1500 to 2200 square feet. Here’s how the median prices of those types of homes have fared over the past 10 years.

Median price of 3 bedroom Knoxville TN homes

The median price is simply the price at which half of the homes sold are more expensive and the other half are less expensive, fewer sales of cheaper homes moves the median higher, all else being equal. Since our median price is down to $139,900 in the 3rd quarter of 2009 versus a high of $154,500 in the third quarter of 2007 that means we’re selling more less expensive houses than higher priced ones.

Those statistics are born out by the absorption rates (time to sell) of Knoxville area homes. Today there is a 42 months supply of Knoxville homes priced over one million dollars and only a 9 months supply of those homes priced between $100,000 to $150,000.

Bottom line any way you slice and dice it: Knoxville TN home sales are down compared to the booming market of just a couple of year ago and as long as mortgages continue to be difficult to obtain and unemployment continues to be in the 10% range I don’t see many reasons for our market to improve significantly.

On the brighter side there will continue to be homes bought and sold every day, just fewer of them and probably not for top prices as before.

If you have a house for sale in the Knoxville, Tennessee area right now and it’s been on the market over 30 days here’s some tips you can probably use. More useful home selling tips at www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com including a free copy of my 52 page eBook titled: “450 Ways To Make Your Home Sell Faster”.

Looking to buy a house in the greater Knoxville area? www.HomeCenter.com is also a great place to see all the homes, condos, land, and lots of sale. No registration required, just plug in your search criteria and start looking. Search by Maps, addresses, and areas.

Knoxville tn real estate

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Image by volunteerjim via Flickr

It looks like this past week was another above average week for Knoxville and Farragut real estate transfers. The Knox County Register of Deeds office reported 230 property transfers for that week.

I believe that’s only the third time this year there have been over 200 transfers in one a one week period. Let’s hope this trend continues.

230 property transfers is above average for the year.

There was even 2 transfers for over a million dollars; both were around the1.5 million mark.

The #100,000 to $200,000 range still leads the stats with 104 combined which is almost half of the total number of 230.

Lots of talk (and some hard lobbying) for Congress to extend the $8,000 first time buyers tax credit. My guess is it’s even money (50-50) whether that will happen or not.

Congress did pass a bill to extend it for members of the military if they had been stationed anywhere outside the United States at any time during 2009. Those service member will now have until November 2010 to take advantage of the tax credit.

Here’s a great YouTube video I found that explains how the tax credit works. Worth watching for the 2 minutes it runs.

www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com is a great place to start your home search, get tips and advice on how to sell your home, and lots of other information including schools and Knoxville area information. Pay us a visit soon.

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If you’re selling or thinking of selling a house in the Knoxville and Farragut, Tennessee area one important fact you must know is what is the current absorption rate in those areas for your price point.

Absorption rate is simply the time it will take a house to sell based on the number of current listings and the monthly number of sales in those price points.

A “normal” Knoxville real estate market usually has an absorption rate of 6 months and neither the Seller nor the Buyer is thought to have the advantage. A Seller’s market usually has an absorption rate of less than 6 months, and a Buyer’s market normally is thought to have an absorption rate of more than 6 months.

The 6 month number in this definition means it would take about 6 months to sell the entire amount of available Knox County inventory in the market if this were a so-called normal real estate market.

Currently in the greater Knoxville area it’s pretty long for the higher end of the market and getting closer to average in the lower end.

Remember:

Sellers market equals less than a 6 month supply of homes for sale

‘Normal’ market has a 6 month supply, give or take 2 weeks each way

Buyers market has more than a 6 month supply of homes currently for sale.

Knox County absorption rates (months to sell)

Spun any way you want, almost all of Knox County is still in a pretty strong buyers market with the upper end price points being a VERY strong buyers market, i.e. there is a 42 months supply currently for sale of homes priced at over 1 million dollars, and a 35 months supply priced between $300,000 to $500,000.

The figures above are why the $200,000 and below price points continue to dominate the sales charts and have all of this year.

Buyers, it’s still a great time to buy. Lots of Knoxville area homes for sale, low interest rates, and you can still get in on that $8,000 federal tax credit if you qualify. Call or mail me with any questions about how you can very easily become a homeowner in 2009.

Sellers, homes in Knox County are selling but they need to be priced very aggressively, in tip top condition, and you need to be willing to negotiate with buyers if you want to sell.

Visit KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com to see all of Knox County and the surrounding areas homes for sale.