Knoxville Tennessee Real Estate Trends

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 3:10 pm, February 21st, 2012  

2012 Real Estate Trends: Comparing Knoxville to the rest of Tennessee

By guest author Emma Crawford

With 2012 getting in full swing this February, a number of real estate markets around Tennessee are analyzing their original goals to see where they are stacking up. A number of cities such as Memphis and Nashville are looking to seek improvements in the market in 2012. With one month underway, a look at the Knoxville real estate market’s place in comparison to the rest of the state and nearby cities is a great way to measure early success.

For the entire state of Tennessee, median prices are sitting at $129,000 right now. Knoxville’s average listing price of $240,000 in February is certainly superior to the statewide average, which is a great positive for area sellers. In comparison, Memphis’s current median prices are sitting at $145,000. When it comes to median prices, Knoxville is certainly holding an advantage over other the rest of Tennessee right now.

Mortgage rates are certainly an important part of real estate these days. As they’ve hit record lows in 2011, buyers have been able to take advantage of rates lower than a lot of rent prices. Compared to the state’s two biggest cities, Memphis and Nashville, Knoxville is currently home to the lowest 30 year fixed rate mortgages of the three. Knoxville’s current APR of 3.88 is highly comparable to Memphis and Nashville, which are both sitting at 3.977 APR

Just as mortgage rates have gone down, apartment rental rates continue to go up throughout the country. While this is one area where Knoxville is similar to the state’s other big cities, the trends could be positive for area sellers. Knoxville’s rentals are up almost four percent over the past three months, while Nashville apartments have gone up nearly eight percent in the same time frame. With apartment rentals going up all over the state, it’s possible that those who are on the fence between renting and buying could decide to pull the trigger on the purchase of a home in 2012.

Right now, Knoxville has comparable inventory to Nashville near 3050, although it’s short of Memphis, who has 3095 homes on the market. However, even though Memphis has a better inventory right now, homes are staying on the market for a lot shorter time in the Knoxville area. Right now, the average Memphis-area home is on the market for 121 days, compared to just 100 on average for a home in the Knoxville area.

Certainly there are some gives and takes when it comes to Knoxville’s current status compared to other large real estate markets in Tennessee. One huge positive is the clear advantage in listing price that Knoxville currently holds, which will be a boon for area sellers. Hopefully the record low mortgage rates in the state, combined with rising rental rates can help continue to drive a strong 2012 in the Tennessee real estate markets.

Visit KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com for all your Knoxville area and east Tennessee real estate needs.

 

Knoxville area 2010 homes sales end strong

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 11:08 pm, January 14th, 2011  

One of the tough things about making predictions of any sort is that it’s pretty easy to be wrong. I seem to have been wrong once again on my prediction in total 2010 Knoxville, TN area home sales.

If you will recall on November 15, 2010 I predicted a year end total of 9,500 total homes and condos sold in the greater Knoxville area but the final total turned out to be 10,133 for the year. That’s about 600 more than I thought would sell making my guess off by about 6%; not too bad for a guess. It appears the 4th quarter sales of 2010 were far stronger than I thought they would be.

Here’s how 2010 ended up in Knoxville compared to the past 9 years:

2010 sales

You’ll notice that 2010 ended up about 400 homes below 2009. In analyzing the sales data for the past few years I believe the 2009 and some of the 2010 data was artificially inflated by the $8,000 tax credit that expired on April 30th of 2010.

That tax credit may have been driving Knoxville area sales by as much as 20% or more. In addition to driving sales it also seems to have encouraged the sale of more lower priced homes (first time buyers) driving the average sales prices down along with the median prices.

average & median

So now we’re in January of 2011 and what’s the Knoxville housing market like so far?

We’re only 2 weeks into the year so very little hard data is available but I’m hearing a lot of anecdotal positive stories from my fellow Realtors about increased traffic at open houses, more inquiries on listings for sale, and lenders fielding questions about interest rate and mortgage loans.

If all that positive activity continues, then 2011 should be a good year for Knoxville sellers and buyers with both increased numbers of sales and higher average prices since the market will be more balanced with the demise of the tax credit.

Interest rates remain at historic lows and inventory of homes in all prices ranges is plentiful.

Head on over to KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com to see all the Knoxville, TN area homes for sale and please email or call me with any homebuying or selling questions.

knoxville tn real estate word cloud

knoxville tn real estate word cloud

What is the 2011 outlook for the Knoxville, TN real estate market?

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 2:28 pm, November 15th, 2010  

Hindsight is always 20/20 and in November of 2011 it will be very simple to just review the past year and see what actually did happen. But since it’s now November of 2010 we will have to look to the past years and the current economic data to make a future prediction. It’s always interesting to me to revisit my past predictions and see how I did.

Here’s my prediction for the 2010 Knoxville area real estate market. For the first three quarters of the year Knoxville area Realtors have sold and closed 7,862 residential units, that’s single family homes and condos combined. For the entire year of 2009 that total was 10,511. I don’t think there is going to be another 2,649 sales before 2010 ends so using the best available data it looks as if we will be down in 2010 compared to 2009. I predict total Knoxville area homes sold in 2010 will end up around 9,000 to maybe 9,500; down a little from 2009 levels.

NOTE: The chart below only contains sales data for the first three quarters of 2010.

Knoxville homes sold

9,500 sales in 2010 will put us roughly around the 2001 levels. I’m basing this prediction on past sales and the current state of the US and local economy.

Sales in 2010 were somewhat artificially inflated by the $8,000 dollar tax credit that has now expired for most buyers but there are still exceptions, i.e. military personnel serving outside the US. That credit served to prop up the market a bit this year and will not be available in 2011. I predict, if we’re very lucky, home sales in 2011 will hopefully equal 2009-2010 numbers and we will sell around 9-10,000 homes in the greater Knoxville area.

I also believe the bulk of sales in 2011 will be in the lower price ranges as they are now.

Year to date there have been at total of 16 closed sales of houses priced over one million dollars; that’s 1.6 sales a month. Currently there are 83 houses for sale at that price level. To get the absorption rate (time to sell) for that price you divide the monthly sales into the current inventory and you get 51.8 months, or over 4 years to sell just those 83 houses assuming no new listings come along. THAT is a sluggish market.

Contrast that to the “hot” price range now of $120,000 to $139,999 where you find 347 closed sales of in 2010 or 34.7 per month. There are currently 242 active listings in that price range so that would make their absorption rate 9.86 months. Lower priced homes are selling but the time to sell is still high signaling a buyer’s market for those homes as well.

Here are some things I base my prediction on:

  • JOBS: Jobs continue to be an economic problem, especially for housing. People with no jobs don’t usually buy houses and unfortunately, people with no jobs also get foreclosed on as well. The unemployment rate is officially 9.6% now and is essentially unchanged since May of this year. I believe the true unemployment rate is more in the 15-20% range because a lot of people have exhausted their unemployment insurance and are no long counted in the statistics. Also people like Realtors and other self employed persons are usually not eligible for unemployment benefits and are never counted whether working or now. Jobs will continue to be a drag on the housing market in 2011.
  • Economic uncertainty will continue: “Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “Consumer confidence, while slightly improved from September levels, is still hovering at historically low levels. Consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy is relatively unchanged, primarily because labor market conditions have yet to significantly improve. And, despite the uptick in Expectations, consumers continue to be quite concerned about the short-term outlook. Both present and future indicators point toward more of the same in the coming months.” I can’t say it better than that.
  • Interest Rates: While interest rates are as low as I’ve ever seen them in my 30+ years in real estate, jobs, available mortgage money, and consumer confidence will continue to keep buyers away in 2011. Anyone qualified and sitting on the fence waiting for lower prices, lower rates, whatever, should probably go ahead and buy now. Mortgage rates cannot go any lower and most sellers are taking a beating now when they sell. The time for qualified buyers with a stable job  to buy a home has never been better than it is right now.

Great Smoky Mountains National Park webcams | Knoxville Tennessee

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 3:48 pm, July 29th, 2010  

Near the town of Knoxville, Tennessee lies the 521,086 acre (more or less) 😉 Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

A scenic mountain range that attracts over 10 million annual visitors to view the scenic beauty of the rugged mountains and beautiful pastoral valleys.

A couple of strategically placed web-cams can give you up to date views of what the local weather and scenery looks like most anytime during daylight hours. I’ve seen some very beautiful scenes from looking at these webcams periodically no matter where I am or what I’m doing.

It’s also fun to watch the change of seasons on these webcams. One great use is to monitor the leaves as they change color in the fall if you’re coming for a visit.

One of my favorites is the one at Look Rock just off the Foothills Parkway below Maryville, Tennessee. This is a recent photo from the Look Rock webcam just before dark in late July around 9:00 PM.

night falls in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park near Knoxville, TN This is from the Look Rock webcam

Night falls over the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP)

The mountain in the middle foreground with the three peaks on top is Rich Mountain; Cades Cove lies just behind it.

Here’s what you’re looking at in daylight on a clear day.

great smoky mountains national park near knoxville, tennessee

Here's a handy photo of what you're actually looking at.

Another great webcam is the one on Purchase Knob on the south side of the park. This camera is actually just inside the park boundary but faces east to northeast towards Bald Mountain, Johnson City, Tennessee, and Asheville, North Carolina to the east.

Here’s a shot from the Purchase Knob camera with prominent landmarks identified.

purchase knob great smoky mountains national park near Knoxville, TN

Did you ever wonder what you're looking at on web-cam shots? Here's some help

East Tennessee and the greater Knoxville area are known for natural and scenic beauty; pay a visit soon and look around. Lots of folks do and end up deciding they want to live here.

KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com is a great resources to find a home, condo, or land in and around Knoxville.

Harbor Tour of Portsmouth New Hampshire

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 10:27 pm, July 17th, 2010  

This past Thursday night I had the opportunity to go on a harbor tour/cruise of Portsmouth, New Hampshire along the harbor out to where it runs into the Atlantic Ocean.

Portsmouth harbor portsmouth new hampshire

Portsmouth New Hampshire harbor view

Portsmouth is a beautiful coastal city on the northern end of the New Hampshire seacoast. In the harbor view above you can see a new, waterfront condo project under construction and the white steeple of the Old North Church to the far right.

At only 17 miles long, the New Hampshire coastline is shorter than any other state that borders an ocean.

Memorial Bridge over the Piscataqua River, portsmouth nh

Memorial Bridge over the Piscataqua River connects Portsmouth to Kittery, Maine

Because Portsmouth is a working harbor with lots of large ship traffic in and out, two of the bridges over the river are drawbridges which raise every 30 minutes from 7:00 AM until 7:00 PM to accommodate harbor ship traffic. In this photo the middle section of the bridge is starting to lift.

portsmouth nh harbor moran tugboat company

Moran Tugboat & towing company tugboats

The Piscataqua River is the third-fastest tidal river in North America and also very narrow by modern shipping standards. Local river pilots take the helm of in and outbound commercial vessels and guide them safely through the channel. These two large tugboats are operated by Moran Towing & Tugboats. Because the Piscataqua flows so fast these tugs only operate at “slack tide”, roughly four hours a day.when the incoming tides temporarily balance the outgoing river currents. Check out this Portsmouth harbor cam to watch river traffic live. The images refreshes every 10 seconds.

portsmouth naval shipyard portsmouth nh

The Portsmouth Naval Shipyard was established in 1800

The Shipyard’s primary mission today is the overhaul, repair and modernization of Los Angeles-class submarines. The dry-docks have recently been enlarged and upgraded to accommodate the new and larger Virginia class submarine with the first due in for a tune up later this month.

USCGC Campbell (WMEC-909) is a United States Coast Guard medium endurance cutter based at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine and is the 5th Coast Guard Cutter to bear the name. She regularly patrols the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Maine to the Caribbean Sea

USCG Cutter Campbell based at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard

The Campbell regularly patrols the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Maine south to the Caribbean Sea.

Portsmouth Naval Prison, Kittery ME

Portsmouth Naval Prison

This is Portsmouth Naval Prison which is curiously actually located in Kittery, Maine just across the Piscataqua River from Portsmouth. The prison has been closed and abandoned since the 1970s as too expensive to rebuild or to tear down. Scenes from the movie “The Last Detail,” starring Jack Nicholson were filmed there.

new castle nh harbor smallest town in nh

New Castle, New Hampshire the smallest city in NH

This is some of the waterfront of New Castle, the smallest city in New Hampshire and the only one located entirely on islands. New Castle is also home to a US Coast Guard station and the historic Wentworth by the Sea hotel.

setting sun over portsmouth new hampshire

Setting sun over Portsmouth Naval Shipyard

portsmouth light at New Castle Coast Guard Stations setting sun over portsmouth new hampshire

The green light at right is Portsmouth Light on the New Castle Coast Guard Station grounds.

Portsmouth light was originally established before the Revolutionary War when American was still a British Colony.

In 1946 the current lighthouse keeper’s wife Connie wrote a book titled not surprisingly “The Lighthouse Keeper’s Wife” and described the view from the top of Portsmouth Light. “I looked down forty feet to the little white scallops of incoming tide washing over the rocks, caressing each one lovingly. …We could look up the Piscataqua River to Portsmouth, with its gleaming white belfry of North Church, a landmark for sailors, silhouetted against the sky. …At the center of the harbor was Whaleback Lighthouse, and ten miles out to sea from that was the lighthouse on White Island, part of the Isles of Shoals. Both sent their beams across the water.”

Lighthouse keepers were or often became, a little ‘different’ from the rest of us. Imagine your job was taking care of Whaleback Lighthouse on an uninhabited, rocky small island day in and day out.

One lighthouse keeper was reported to use the top of his light to shoot passing ducks. He also had a small dingy that he used to row to shore occasionally where he would borrow a resident’s car to visit the local grocery store.

Whaleback island lighthouse entrance to portsmouth harbor

Whaleback Island lighthouse marks the entrance to Portsmouth Harbor

Whaleback Island is actually part of  a  jagged ledge known as Whaleback. This ledge is completely underwater at high tide and is a continuation of the southern portion of Gerrish Island in Maine.  The little dots you see in the water are buoys for lobster traps.

whaleback island lighthouse at darkness falls and a light fog starts to roll in

Whaleback Island at twilight as a light fog starts rolling in.

By the way, this is a working light house; the reason it appears dark in the photos is that the light only flashes on and off every few seconds but trust me, you do not have any problem seeing it when its light flashes. Whaleback light gives 2 white flashes every 10 seconds and during foggy weather, 2 blasts on its foghorn every 10 seconds. Click here to hear the Whaleback Light fog horn. It’s not too loud so it won’t blast you out of your seat. 😉

portsmouth nh harbor at night

Portsmouth Harbor at night is a beautiful sight too.

We got back to the dock around 10:00 PM after a great tour of Portsmouth Harbor. If you ever in the area I recommend a harbor tour as a ‘must do’ part of your visit.

Living…er, not large, and loving it | Knoxville, TN

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 7:17 am, July 17th, 2010  

This is an amazing story about a guy that lives in an 89 SQUARE FOOT house!

Yep, that’s 89 square feet.

To give you some perspective a 10 X 10 room is 100 square feet.

Even more amazing is the fact that he’s turned this into a business. Seems the demand for tiny houses is larger than you would think.

To find more ‘normal’ sized houses in the greater Knoxville area visit KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com

For questions or advice on buying or selling a home in the greater Knoxville area Jim Lee is the ‘go to’ Realtor in town.

Buy a Knoxville TN home | get a green card

Posted by Jim Lee, REALTOR® @ 6:00 am, June 9th, 2010  

Here’s a simple solution to our current housing dilemma.

We all know there are too many houses on the market in most areas that are not selling.

Play VisualTour

There is also a problem with too many illegal immigrants.

One simple solution I ran across recently is to just give a green card to every legal immigrant who wants to come to the US and buy a house.

Democrats should love it because it allows more immigration.

Republicans should love it because the new immigrants would be well documented. Mortgage bankers ask for lots more documentation than the INS.

This offering should not apply to illegal aliens currently in the country.

I believe that would be a huge slap in the face to our country, our laws and those who obey them, and all other immigrants that took the time and trouble to go through the process legally.

Personally I don’t see a downside, do you?

Buy a house, get a green card.

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