Knoxville Tennessee Real Estate Blog

Only 2 more days left in August and this is the last Register of Deeds report for that month.

Knox County real esatate transactions recorded for the week of August 30th

I count 136 new Knox County transactions recorded in the past week; these include Knoxville and the Town of Farragut.

It’s down a little from last week’s 178 and the big, 225 sale week before that. We’re about to the time of year where the seasonal drop in sales begins also and I’m still very curious to see if it might hold up a little longer this year for Knoxville area buyers to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit that runs out at the end of November.

Combined with continuing low interest rates and a huge selection of homes for sale, the $8,000 tax credit has been driving a lot of sales this year especially in the lower price ranges between $100,000 to around the $250,000 point.

Here’s a recap of the years weekly reports for comparison.

Knox County weekly year to date sales recorded

And a yearly comparison back to 2005

Knoxville and Knox county yearly sales comparisons to 2009

November 30th is the end of the $8,000 federal tax credit. It’s taking anywhere from 30 to 45 days to get a new mortgage through the pipeline these days, especially with the new appraisal guidelines. So if you intend to buy a house this year and take advantage of that one time tax credit you need to have your house under contract not later than about October 15th to make sure you can get your loan processed and closed on time.

Visit www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com to pick out your new house. No registration required to look all you want.

Please call or email me with any questions or to go look at some homes for sale.

Another week has passed and it’s time to check the scorecard to see how Knoxville real estate sales have been doing in the past week and year to date.

The National Association of Realtors says: “For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row.”

In counting the weekly real estate transfers in today’s Knoxville News Sentinel I see178 total transfers recorded. As usual the low to mid price points are way ahead of the higher price ranges. There were no sales reported over one million dollars and only 1 between $500,000 to $1,000,000.

Knox County real estate transfers for the week of August 23rd.

Tracking Knox County real estate transactions recorded at the Register of Deeds office there is a very slight upturn in numbers of closings. In past weeks this year we’ve averaged around 150 transactions per week so this week’s 178 is a modest improvement. However I’m still not ready to call it an improvement even through the numbers are up. I think it’s more of a seasonal adjustment than anything else.

In additional to being very localized, real estate sales are also very seasonal and very much tied to local economies. Historically December, January, and February are the slowest 3 months of the year with a rise usually beginning in the March-April timeframe, peaking around May-June, and then tapering off towards fall and back to the slowest months of Dec, Jan, & Feb again.

Take a look at Knoxville area sales over the past 4 years below compared to what’s happened so far in 2009.

Comparison of past 4 years to year to date in 2009

The rising red line on the bottom is where the Knoxville area is at the end of July. All the other lines represent previous years sales back to 2005. Notice how they usually bottom out around December and then start a gradual rise in January towards a peak around mid summer and then slow back down in the fall.

So why do more people buy and sell houses in the spring and summer than in the fall and winter? There are lots of reasons but some of the more common are these:

• Parents like to buy and/or sell in the spring/summer timeframe because the kids are typically out of school and don’t have to be moved from one school district to another in mid-term.
• Lots of homebuyers prefer shopping for a home in the warmer months because there is usually a larger selection of houses to choose from, the weather is more pleasant to get out and look, and since the days are also longer, there is more time to look around both after work during the week and on weekends.
• Companies that transfer employees also try to do more of their job shifting in the summer months for the same reasons.

Bottom line; sales are up compared to previous months in 2009 but still way down compared to the same months in previous years.

I’m predicting we’ll see the start of the seasonal downturn in the greater Knoxville area when the August 2009 sales figures come out and a steady decline as in previous years to a bottom in December.

One huge unknown factor that will bring a new twist to this year is the expiration of the $8,000 tax credit at the end of November, 2009. I think that’ s been driving a large portion of our market this year and I’m very curious to see how that plays out when it ends. I think it will cause a bigger drop in sales than usual because of the economic uncertainty the country as a whole is still experiencing.

Have a real estate question? Comment below here or email me for a confidential answer.

Find lots of great buying & selling tips at www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com and see all the Knoxville area Realtors listings with no registration required.

A couple of weeks ago my church, Beaver Creek Cumberland Presbyterian, in Powell, Tennessee held it’s annual Vacation Bible School.

Beaver Creek Presbyterian Church Vacation Bible School, Powell, Tennessee

There was a big turnout as usual and we averaged about 65-70 kids a night for the 4 evenings plus about that many adult volunteers to teach classes, supervise  outdoor activities, and prepare snacks for the campers and adults.

Since I’m serving as co-chairman of our kitchen committee I was in the kitchen those 4 evenings but I did sneak out a couple of times to make some photos.

Here's the kitchen volunteers getting ready to start preparing food for vacation bible school.

It’s a pretty big job preparing a snack for the kids and a meal for all the adult volunteers.

food preparation under way for vacation bible schools kids and adult volunteers

We focused on both healthy snacks and meals. Each night had lots of fresh fruits like the delicious watermelon in the tray on the table plus lots of other fruits, raw veggies, and other healthy snacks.

Senior Minister Thomas Sweat outlines some VBS plans to adult volunteers. He dresses better on Sundays. ;)

vacation bible schoolers enjoying a snack.

We were really blessed with great weather all 4 days so the kids got to do lots of outdoor activities all four days.

Outdoor fun at Beaver Creek VBS.

Youth Minister Billy Fly at left and two volunteers chow down at VBS.

At the end everyone agreed that it was another great vacation bible school experience for all at Beaver Creek Cumberland Presbyterian Church and a continuing and important part of our ministry and church.

If you’re a newcomer to Knoxville or a long time resident, we would love to have you visit our church. And if you’re looking for a church home please consider us; we would be honored to receive you.

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The July sales figures are out from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors so let’s see how the Knoxville area real estate market did last month.

I see a total of 1,044 sales reported in all price ranges, days on market (time to sell) 118 days, the median price of a 3 bedroom home holding pretty steady at $137,300, 4 bedrooms $267,000, and $144,500 for condos.

Here’s what this past July looks like compared to other years.

Knoxville, Tennessee July real estate sales in all price ranges

Even though July sales in 2005 were a bit higher than 2006, 2006 was really the BIG year in Knoxville area sales so comparing apples to apples, this July’s sales are down 40% over that year.

Here’s what the first half of this year looks like compared to previous years.

Knoxville area first half sales compared to other years

Compared to our peak year, 2006, total sales for the first half of 2009 are still down around 50%.

It’s still hard to draw any meaningful conclusions about a trend of any sort from the figures because historically, real estate sales have a very strong seasonal factor with the peak sales months being June, July, and August and the lower sales months being the winter months. When the August sales figures come out next month I’ll do a comparison of the three peak months to previous years.

The big question on most people’s minds are “when is the market going to turn around and/or pick up again?” Best guess is probably not this year or maybe even 2010 but very likely in 2011 barring unforeseen circumstances.

For sellers my advice remains the same: Competitive pricing, put your house in the best possible condition, consider some buyer concessions such as paying closing costs, temporary rate buydowns, and be prepared to negotiate.

For buyers it’s a great market for you. Lowest interest I can ever remember, huge supply of homes on the market, and for those that have not owned a home in the past 3 years, up to an $8,000 tax credit from the government to help you even further in buying. However that tax credit runs out at the end of November which means you need to have a house under contract by at least the middle of October to make sure you get it.

www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com is a great place for both buyers and sellers to looks at homes for sale. Sellers can see what your competition looks like and buyers can search for their new home here.

Looks like this past week was a good one for real estate in the greater Knoxville area. I count 225 closed real estate transactions from the Knox County Register of Deeds office. I believe that’s just the second time this year we’ve had over 200 closed transactions in a week.

It also appears the trend toward lower end sale continues with zero sales in the over 1 million dollar range and just 7 in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range. As you move towards the lower ends of the price points the sales start to increase. Tops is the $100,000 to $150,000 price range with a total of 50 closed transactions for the past week.

Past week's transactions from the Knox County Register of Deeds

Next week the July sales figures from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors will be out and we can see what happened in that month.

In this past June we had 998 closed transctions in all price ranges with a median price of $140,000 for a 3 bedrooms Knoxville area home; hopefully July will be better.

Market activity is on the upswing and I believe lot of buyers are trying to get in under the wire for the $8,000 federal tax credit. That credit expires at the end of November and you have to have your transaction closed not later than November 30th of 2009 to qualify. That means you need to have your new house under contract not later than around October 15th to make sure you get it.

Here’s a very nice condo I listed last week for only $148,500 in the Hardin Valley Road area. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and in absolute ‘move in condition’. Click anywhere on the photo to open up a virtual tour of this great condo.

10021 Bellflower Way, Knoxville, TN 37932

I also have several other very nice listing plus 5 in the pipeline that will be on the market very soon so check www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com often to see them plus all of Knoxville’s Realtor listings with no registration required.

Today is Sunday, August 9th and the Knox County Register of Deeds reports 162 real estate transactions recorded for the week. Below is the breakdown by price range.

Past weeks sales as reported by the Knox County Register of Deeds office

So now that the year is over half gone and families are getting ready for the start of a new Knox County School year how are we doing with real estate sales so far in 2009. Here’s another graph of Knox County’s year to date property transfers.

Year to date Knox County sales

The average weekly sales year to date is 148.  so it appears from the current data that the year has been fairly consistent especially when you factor in the seasonal adjustments for the historical peak selling months of June, July, and August.

I hear lots of stories from my fellow Realtors about “business getting better”, “I’m really busy”, and others but “getting better” and “really busy” doesn’t seem to be carrying over into closed sales.

I’m going to go out on a giant limb here and make some predictions about where I think the Knoxville area housing market is headed for the rest of 2009 and 2010.

1. I think the modest price declines we’ve seen in our area have bottomed out. Luckily we did not have any drastic price/value declines even through the local volume is down over 50% in 2009 versus 2006. Before you start celebrating however I do not see any price rises in my crystal ball for 2009. I do see consumer confidence continuing to erode and unemployment continue to be a huge factor in housing sales. On the bright side, homebuyers with stable employment and good credit will find now an excellent time to buy.
2. Numbers of houses for sale will start to decline. Not every seller has to sell today. Some want to sell to move up, downsize, or live in a different area. However if their house does not sell they still have the option to not sell and just stay where they are. I think a lot of sellers are getting tired of having their house for sale and will remove them from the active market. Although there will be fewer sellers those sellers will be motivated to sell and do whatever is necessary to make that happen.
3. Banks are starting to find that simply foreclosing on a house and reselling it is far simpler and more of a sure thing for them than attempting loan modifications for existing homeowners behind on their payments. Look for more short sales and fewer ‘work out’ attempts.
4. Interest rates could begin to rise soon. Investors have been very concerned about inflation for some time now and if the government adds a new supply of U.S. Treasuries to the market to offset the gigantic deficit watch out. Income tax revenues, both corporate and personal are down dramatically this year further hurting one of the  governments primary sources of revenue.
5. Rents will increase. Former homeowners that are foreclosed on will become renters and find higher prices because of the decreasing numbers of rentals available. New construction is almost at a standstill so no new rental units are being added to the market.

As always, www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com is an excellent place to see all of the greater Knoxville area Realtor listings for sale, no registration necessary.

Please feel free to comment here or contact me directly with any questions or comments.

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As a long time Knoxville area Realtor I have helped literally hundreds of families buy and sell homes. And of course since I’m fairly intimately involved with those people during their home purchase or sale I know a lot about them including where they’re moving from or to.

However I have often wondered about the rest of people moving here from other areas. Where did they move from? What part of the United States or the world were they living before they moved here?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has a research department that investigates such things as where people come from, what sort of house did they buy, number of people in the family, and lots of other statistics.

Historic trend of homebuyers into and out of Knox County, TN

I got a copy of the latest “NAR Relocation Report” for Knox County, Tennessee to get some empirical data on just exactly where do new Knox County residents come from; the results were pretty surprising to me.

In the latest year data is available far and away the biggest number of new Knox County residents moved here from Blount County which is just next door. 817 households from Blount County are now Knox County residents.

Number of households that moved into Knox County, TN and bought a house.

Blount, Anderson, Sevier, and other area folks are invited to view all of Knox Counties Realtor listings for sale at www.KnoxvilleHomeCenter.com

Here’s a couple of Knox County homes that might appeal to newcomers.

Karns, 4 bedrooms, and priced at $299,900

Attractive Cape Cod style and priced at only $174,900

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